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style='width:100.0%;padding:3.0pt .15in 3.0pt .15in'> <div> <p class=MsoNormal><b><s><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>This article has multiple issues.</span></s></b><s><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'> Please help <b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Twin_deficit_hypothesis&amp;action=edit">improve the article</a></b> or discuss these issues on the <b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Twin_deficit_hypothesis" title="Talk:Twin deficit hypothesis">talk page</a></b>.<o:p></o:p></span></s></p> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list .5in'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>It does not <b>cite any <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources">references or sources</a></b>. Please help improve it by citing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability" title="Wikipedia:Verifiability">reliable sources</a>. </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Tagged since May 2008.</span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list .5in'><s><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>It may require general <b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Cleanup" title="Wikipedia:Cleanup">cleanup</a></b> to meet Wikipedia's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Manual_of_Style" title="Wikipedia:Manual of Style">quality standards</a>. </span></s><s><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Tagged since November 2006.</span></s><s><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></s></li> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list .5in'><s><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Its introduction may need to be <b>rewritten</b> to comply with Wikipedia's <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:LEAD" title="Wikipedia:LEAD">lead section guidelines</a></b>. </span></s><s><span style='font-size:10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Tagged since May 2009.</span></s><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> </div> </td> </tr> </table> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>The <b>twin deficits hypothesis</b> is a concept from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomics" title=Macroeconomics>macroeconomics</a> that contends that there is a strong link between a national economy's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_account_balance" title="Current account balance">current account balance</a> and its <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Government_budget_balance&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" title="Government budget balance (page does not exist)"><span style='color: #CC2200'>government budget balance</span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0 style='mso-cellspacing:1.5pt; mso-yfti-tbllook:1184' id=toc> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <div id=toctitle> <h2><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Contents<o:p></o:p></span></h2> </div> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;mso-list:l7 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .5in'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_deficit_hypothesis#Definition"><span class=tocnumber2>1</span> <span class=toctext>Definition</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;mso-list:l7 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .5in'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_deficit_hypothesis#Proof"><span class=tocnumber2>2</span> <span class=toctext>Proof</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;mso-list:l7 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .5in'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_deficit_hypothesis#Example"><span class=tocnumber2>3</span> <span class=toctext>Example</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></li> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;mso-list:l7 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .5in'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_deficit_hypothesis#References"><span class=tocnumber2>4</span> <span class=toctext>References</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ul> </td> </tr> </table> <h2 style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'><script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ if (window.showTocToggle) { var tocShowText = "show"; var tocHideText = "hide"; showTocToggle(); } //]]> </script><span class=editsection>[<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Twin_deficit_hypothesis&amp;action=edit&amp;section=1" title="Edit section: Definition">edit</a>]</span> <span class=mw-headline><span id=Definition>Definition</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></h2> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>As an example, it is hypothesized that a large budget deficit leads to a large current account deficit. The theory goes as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Y</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'> = <i>C</i> + <i>I</i> + <i>G</i> + <i>NX</i></span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language: EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>where Y represents National Income or GDP, C is consumption, I is investment, G is government spending and NX stands for net exports. This represents GDP because all the production in an economy (the left hand side of the equation) is used as consumption (C), investment (I), or government spending (G), and the leftover production is exported (NX). Another equation defining GDP using alternative terms (which in theory results in the same value) is<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Y</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'> = <i>C</i> + <i>S</i> + <i>T</i></span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>where Y is again GDP, S is savings, and T is taxes. This is because national income is also equal to output, and all individual income either goes to pay for consumption (C), to pay taxes (T), or becomes savings (S).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h2 style='background:#F8FCFF'><span class=editsection><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>[<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Twin_deficit_hypothesis&amp;action=edit&amp;section=2" title="Edit section: Proof">edit</a>]</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'> <span class=mw-headline><span id=Proof>Proof</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></h2> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>Since </span><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Y</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'> = <i>C</i> + <i>I</i> + <i>G</i> + <i>NX</i></span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language: EN'>, and </span><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt; mso-ansi-language:EN'>Y</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'> = <i>C</i> + <i>S</i> + <i>T</i></span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>, then </span><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'>C</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'> + <i>I</i> + <i>G</i> + <i>NX</i> = <i>C</i> + <i>S</i> + <i>T</i></span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>, which simplifies to </span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN'>(<i>S</i> " <i>I</i>) + (<i>T</i> " <i>G</i>) = (<i>X</i> " <i>M</i>)</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>If (T-G) is negative, we have a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_deficit" title="Budget deficit">budget deficit</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>Now, assume an economy already at potential output, meaning Y is fixed. In this case, if the deficit increases, and savings remains the same, then this last equation implies that either investment (I) must fall (see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowding_out_(economics)" title="Crowding out (economics)">crowding out</a>), or net exports (X-M, or NX) must fall, causing a trade deficit. Hence, the twin deficits.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>Though the economics behind which of the two is used to finance the government deficit can get more complicated than what is shown above, the essence of it is that if foreigners' savings pay for the budget deficit, the trade deficit grows. If the countries own citizens' savings finance the borrowing, it may cause a crowding out effect (in an economy at or near potential output, or full employment).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h2 style='background:#F8FCFF'><span class=editsection><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>[<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Twin_deficit_hypothesis&amp;action=edit&amp;section=3" title="Edit section: Example">edit</a>]</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'> <span class=mw-headline><span id=Example>Example</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></h2> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>In the US, the budget deficit is financed about half from foreigners, half domestically. Therefore, with a $400 billion deficit, the trade deficit would, according to the theory, be increased by some $200 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <div> <div> <p class=MsoNormal style='background:#F8FCFF'><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TwinE.PNG"><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'><img border=0 width=220 height=137 id="_x0000_i1036" src="file:///C:\dosprog\website\5689cuc_files\220px-TwinE.png"></span></a><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <div> <div> <p class=MsoNormal style='background:#F8FCFF'><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TwinE.PNG" title=Enlarge><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-no-proof:yes;text-decoration: none;text-underline:none'><img border=0 width=15 height=11 id="_x0000_i1035" src="file:///C:\dosprog\website\5689cuc_files\magnify-clip.png"></span></a><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> <p class=MsoNormal style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>&quot;Double deficit&quot; in the USA. Fiscal balance (black) and current account balance (red). Source: ameco<sup id="cite_ref-0"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_deficit_hypothesis#cite_note-0">[1]</a></sup>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> </div> </div> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>An <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_system" title="Economic system">economy</a> is deemed to have a <b>double deficit</b> (also known as a <b>twin deficit</b>) if it has a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_account" title="Current account">current account</a> deficit <i>and</i> a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deficit" title=Deficit>fiscal deficit</a>. In effect, the economy is borrowing from foreigners in exchange for foreign-made goods. Traditional <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomics" title=Macroeconomics>macroeconomics</a> predicts that persistent double deficits will lead to currency <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devaluation" title=Devaluation>devaluation</a>/<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depreciation" title=Depreciation>depreciation</a> that can be severe and sudden.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>In the case of the United States, the twin deficit graph as a percentage of GDP shows that the budget and current account deficits did move broadly in sync from 1981 until the early 1990s, but since then, they have moved apart. Data thus confirms that as a government budget deficit widens, the current account falls, but the relationship is complicated by what happens to investment and private saving.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;background:#F8FCFF'><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>CA</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>(<i>X</i> " <i>M</i>) = (<i>private</i>)<i>S</i> " <i>I</i> + (<i>T</i> " <i>G</i>)</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;background:#F8FCFF'><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>CurrentAccount</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'> = (<i>PrivateSavings</i> " <i>Investment</i>) + (<i>Tax</i> " <i>GovernmentExpenditure</i>)</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>Above the equation, it's verifiable that CA will deteriorate as government expenditure exceeds the amount of tax is collected.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>One way to understand this process intuitively is by thinking through two different markets. First consider the Foreign Exchange market. At equilibrium the quantity supplied=the quantity demanded. Thus, Imports + Capital outflow=Exports + Capital Inflow. Rearranging this equation we find that Imports-Exports=Capital Inflow-Capital Outflow. Because Imports-Exports=Trade Deficit and Capital Inflow-Capital Outflow=Net Capital Inflow, we get the equation Trade Deficit=Net Capital Inflow (or Current Account deficit = Capital Account Surplus).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>Next we must consider the market for loanable funds. The equilibrium here is Savings+Net Capital Inflow=Investment+Budget Deficit. However, taking the Forex market into consideration we know that the Trade Deficit is equal to Net Capital Inflow. We can thus substitute for:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;background:#F8FCFF'><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>Savings</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'> + <i>TradeDeficit</i> = <i>Investment</i> + <i>BudgetDeficit</i>.</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>Rearranging algebraically we find that:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;background:#F8FCFF'><span class=texhtml1><i><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>BudgetDeficit</span></i></span><span class=texhtml1><span lang=EN style='font-size:15.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'> = <i>NetSavings</i> + <i>TradeDeficit</i> " <i>Investment</i>.</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style='background:#F8FCFF'><span lang=EN style='mso-ansi-language:EN'>What we can gather from this is the understanding of why an increased budget deficit goes up and down in tandem with the Trade Deficit. This is where we derive the appellation the Twin Deficits: if the US budget deficit goes up then either household savings must go up, the trade deficit must go up, or private investment will decrease.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h2 style='background:#F8FCFF'><span class=editsection><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>[<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Twin_deficit_hypothesis&amp;action=edit&amp;section=4" title="Edit section: References">edit</a>]</span></span><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'> <span class=mw-headline><span id=References>References</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></h2> <ol start=1 type=1> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list .5in;background:#F8FCFF' id="cite_note-0"><b><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN'><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_deficit_hypothesis#cite_ref-0">^</a></span></b><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN'> <a href="http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/annual_macro_economic_database/ameco_contents.htm">Ameco-data base November 2007</a><o:p></o:p></span></li> </ol> <ul type=disc> <li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; mso-list:l4 level1 lfo4;tab-stops:list .5in;background:#F8FCFF'><span id=CITEREFGhoshRamakrishnan2006><span class=citation><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN'>Ghosh, Atish; Ramakrishnan, Uma (December, 2006), <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/12/basics.htm">&quot;Do Current Account Deficits Matter?&quot;</a>, </span></span><span class=citation><i><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN'>Finance and Development</span></i></span><span class=citation><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN'> <b>vol. 43</b> (number 4)</span></span><span class=printonly><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN'>, <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/12/basics.htm">http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/12/basics.htm</a></span></span></span><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&amp;rft.genre=article&amp;rft.atitle=Do+Current+Account+Deficits+Matter%3F&amp;rft.jtitle=Finance+and+Development&amp;rft.aulast=Ghosh&amp;rft.aufirst=Atish&amp;rft.au=Ghosh%2C%26%2332%3BAtish&amp;rft.au=Ramakrishnan%2C%26%2332%3BUma&amp;rft.date=December%2C+2006&amp;rft.volume=vol.+43&amp;rft.issue=number+4&amp;rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.imf.org%2Fexternal%2Fpubs%2Fft%2Ffandd%2F2006%2F12%2Fbasics.htm&amp;rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Twin_deficit_hypothesis"><span class=z3988><span lang=EN style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; 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